FINAL FOUR!

I realize that I "forgot" to blog about last Sunday's Regional Finals, but let's just say that life gets in the way from time to time. Actually there are so many things I would love to blog about in the sports world (Jay Cutler getting traded to the Bears, baseball season just around the corner, John Calipari going to Kentucky, etc.), but I just don't think there's enough hours in the day. So at the very least, I wanted to finish strong with my March Madness musings, especially since I have such a rooting interest in one of tomorrow night's games. :)

That said, a quick recap. I went 2-0 on last Saturday's games, and if you take me at my word, would have gone 1-1 on Sunday. I picked North Carolina to beat Oklahoma (obviously), but I had Louisville getting past Michigan State. Of course this didn't happen, which brings us to our Final Four.

Michigan State vs. Connecticut
Both teams are known for their defense, but they go about it in different ways. Connecticut looks to take advantage of their size down low to block and alter shots, whereas Michigan State gets in your face and looks to harass you the entire possession and then seeks to punish you on the boards. This figures to be a relatively low-scoring game because of both teams' defensive tendencies, but that could change if the Spartans maintain their hot shooting from three-point land or if Connecticut can get some points in transition off of their defense.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see if Michigan State will have a clear advantage when it comes to crowd noise since the Final Four is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. That and the fact that the Spartans have already played once in this setting (against North Carolina in December, UNC won 98-63) could help them get an early edge. Part of Michigan State's formula for success against Louisville in the Regional Final was that they held the Cardinals to just 38% shooting and had a +8 edge on the boards. Even if Connecticut shoots poorly, I just don't see the Spartans winning the battle of the boards against the Huskies. In fact, I will go as far to say that the team that ends up with the rebounding edge will win the game. In this case, I think the Huskies will be last man standing in a nip-and-tuck game that won't be determined until the final minutes. Connecticut makes free throws when it counts and moves on for a shot at their third national title.

Villanova vs. North Carolina
Is it better to get to the Final Four by winning all of your games by double-digit margins like North Carolina did or to have to scratch and claw your way by beating your conference and cross-state rival on a last second shot like Villanova did? Considering it will have been at least six days since either team will have played, maybe it won't matter, but one thing's clear - both teams are playing with a lot of confidence. Villanova has done it by playing tenacious defense and getting solid inside-out productivity on the offensive end. North Carolina has done it by exhibiting their efficient, quick-strike offense, but also showing more sustained consistency and determination on defense. One of the keys to this game is how well will the Tar Heels, and specifically point guard Ty Lawson, be able to operate on offense against the energetic and aggressive Wildcat defense. If North Carolina can get their fast break going, it will be tough for Villanova to keep up. On the other side of the ball, North Carolina will have to maintain their new found commitment to defense and make a point to not give Villanova any open looks and hold them to one shot attempt. Villanova is not the best shooting team, but they make the most of their second-chance opportunities. Turnovers also will be key, as they could lead to more possessions and easy points for either team.
Prediction: North Carolina has been on a mission ever since last year's disappointing loss to eventual national champion Kansas in the Final Four. Fittingly, Villanova will be their toughest opponent yet, making the Tar Heels work for every shot on offense and exert maximum effort on the defensive end. In the end, North Carolina maintains its focus and sticking to the formula that got them to this point, pulls away late from Villanova to get one game closer to their goal of a national championship.

Enjoy the games!