Friday, March 27, 2009

And then there were eight...

As we head into the Regional Finals Saturday and Sunday (also known as the road to the Final Four), it's time to take a quick look back at tonight's games and see how I fared with my predictions. I also will offer a quick preview of Saturday's two Regional Finals match ups.

Midwest Region
Louisville 103, Arizona 64
What I said:
"As long as Louisville doesn't lose its way on the offensive end, this game shouldn't be that close down the stretch."
What happened: Down the stretch? This game was over with about five minutes before half time! Louisville took a 21-point lead into the half and kept pouring it on, making it look ridiculously easy in the process. The Cardinals shot 58% from the field and nearly 50% from three-point land. Arizona was just out-manned and out-classed from the start. Very impressive showing for the overall No. 1 seed.

Michigan St. 67, Kansas 62
What I said: "...Michigan St. wears down the young and inexperienced Jayhawks, stifling them on offense and frustrating them with their grind it out style when they have the ball.
What happened:
I'm not really sure if you can say they stifled or frustrated the Jayhawks, but the Spartans turned it on in the second half, out-scoring Kansas 38-26 to secure the hard-earned victory. The Jayhawks held the Spartans to 39% shooting from the field and out-rebounded them, but they also turned the ball over 19 times, including a few times late in the game. Michigan St. missed only one of their 17 free-throw attempts and had 17 assists on their 23 baskets and showed the most poise late in the game to earn the win and move on.

South Region
Oklahoma 84, Syracuse 71
What I said:
"The 'Cuse's long-range shooting will not pay off, leading to long rebounds and easy buckets for Oklahoma as they coast to an easy victory."

What happened:
Syracuse shot just 29% from distance, leading to many lay ups and dunks on the other end for Oklahoma. This game wasn't as close as the final score and Blake Griffin led the way for the Sooners with 30 points and 14 rebounds. The Sooners also got a career-high 28 points from guard Tony Crocker, a welcome sign as they look forward to the Regional Final on Sunday.

North Carolina 98, Gonzaga 77
What I said:
"I'm counting on them [North Carolina] to ride this momentum and to derive inspiration from last year's disappointing loss to Kansas in the Final Four to fuel them to victory over the Bulldogs.
What happened: Not sure if it was inspiration or what, but North Carolina trailed for a grand total of 40 seconds as they built a 11-point lead at half time and never looked back in beating Gonzaga. Carolina was the aggressor from the start, shooting lights out and scoring on just about every possession. Gonzaga was pretty efficient on offense as well, but turned the ball over several times, allowing the Tar Heels more opportunities to add to their point total. North Carolina shot 53% from the field for the game and would have gone well past 100 if they hadn't missed so many free throws (15-27). Ty Lawson showed no ill effects from his lingering toe injury, setting the tone early with his outside shooting and penetration and finishing with 19 points and nine assists. Tyler Hansbrough led the way with 24 points and 10 rebounds and last year's consensus Player of the Year now gets ready to face off with this year's consensus Player of the Year, Oklahoma's Blake Griffin.


Saturday's Regional Finals

West Regional Final: Missouri vs. Connecticut
Both teams were very impressive on Thursday with Missouri running Memphis out of the gym and Connecticut wearing down overpowering Purdue. Connecticut may not be as long and athletic as Memphis, but they are certainly more experienced and bigger, especially on the front line. Don't expect Missouri to get as many wide open lay ups and shots in the lane with the Huskies' 7-foot-3 center Hasheem Thabeet. A shot-blocking machine, Thabeet affects just as many shots as he gets to, in the process disrupting the other team's effectiveness in the paint. Missouri doesn't have any starter taller than 6-foot-9, so a strong shooting performance and quick, efficient passing are keys to their success. Missouri is very capable of disrupting Connecticut's offense with their constant pressure and switching defenses. So Connecticut's point guard AJ Price and other ball handlers better take care of the rock to reduce any fast break and easy baskets the Tigers are able to get without worrying about Thabeet roaming down low.
Prediction: I know Missouri shredded Memphis' defense, which came in with the title of best in the country, but Memphis and Connecticut are two entirely different teams. As mentioned above, Connecticut has size and length, along with a touch of athleticism on their front line. I just don't see the Tigers getting the easy buckets they got against Memphis, which means they will have to operate in the half court and that's not this team's strength. Take away the Tigers' speed and tempo and they have to rely even more on their shooting and unless they shoot lights out, I don't see them getting many second-chance opportunities. Connecticut slows down Missouri and takes advantage of the size down low and ride their big men to the Final Four.

East Regional Final: Villanova vs. Pittsburgh
Big East and cross-state rivals, these teams are certainly no stranger to each other. In the regular season they only met one time, with Villanova earning a 67-57 victory at home in January. In that game, Pitt shot a woeful 42% from the field and only made three of 16 from three-point range. The Panthers had to deal with foul trouble for several of their big players, including DeJuan Blair, who managed just seven points and eight rebounds in 20 minutes on the floor. It wasn't exactly a work of art for Villanova, but they made their free throws (19 of 28) and held their own on the boards to earn the victory. Fast forward to the NCAA Tournament and Villanova is probably playing its best basketball of the season, while Pitt has had to grind out several close games to get to this point. If the Wildcats can maintain their quality of play, the Panthers had better bring their A game if they want to move on to the Final Four. Expect a typical Big East game - physical, low-scoring and it could very well come down to foul trouble and free throws.
Prediction: I think this will be the best of the Regional Finals as Big East go head-to-head to see who can secure a trip to the Final Four as well as some pretty significant bragging rights. Pitt has not played up to its top seeding in the region, but has done enough, especially late in games, to get to their first Regional Final in a long time. Villanova comes in playing as well as anyone left in the Big Dance. These teams know each other very well, so there will be no surprises. I picked Pitt before the games started, but I really like how well Villanova is playing right now and think that will continue against the Panthers. Pitt's inconsistency on offense finally catches up to them and much like what happened back in January, Villanova uses the same formula (aggressive offense, tenacious defense and all-out effort on the boards) to beat the Panthers and roll on to Ford Field and the Final Four.

2 comments:

  1. I got all my games right last night! So 5/8 in this round and 3/4 survivors in my Final Four. Not too bad, I suppose, for picks made on nothing remotely related to the game... :)

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  2. FYI Ben = Amy J. I don't know why it published that comment under my husband's google account and not mine!

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